We've heard it time and time again: Heathcare costs are on the rise. However, a recent study conducted by the Health Research Institute found medical cost trends for employer-sponsored plans aren't rising at the same pace. In fact, they predict that in 2017 the medical cost trend will be the same as 2016. HRI measured the spending growth for 155 million Americans who are covered by employer-based health insurance and found that the forces inflating medical cost trends are ones you can probably guess: an increased access to care - most notably primary care, behavioral health services and convenient care delivery. 

While these factors raise costs, the tactics used by the pharmacy benefit managers to get bulk discounts and lower pricing will help the overall drug cost trends relatively stable for employer-sponsored plans. We've all seen the headlines about Mylan and their EpiPen price increase. I'm optimistic that political and public pressure may play a role in ramping down large cost increases but of course you can never be completely certain.

After reviewing the findings, I chose one inflator and one deflator that I believe will play a big role in 2017's medical cost trend for employers:

1. Inflator: Convenient care

The proliferation retail clinics and urgent care centers has led to higher utilization by consumers. Because of this increased utilization, convenient care is impacting medical cost trend. According to HRI, there will be more than 3,000 retail health clinics in the U.S. by 2017. Forty percent of consumers will seek care from a retail clinic in 2016; 88% said they are likely to seek treatment at those sites in the future. In addition to retail clinics, there are 9,300 walk-in, stand-alone urgent care centers in the US, and 50-100 new clinics open every year.

2. Deflator: High-performance networks

Per HRI, 63% of employers offer a high-deductible plan with a health savings account, and 25% offer a high deductible plan as the only health insurance option to their employees. However, as more and more employees push back against high cost sharing due to high deductibles they're unable to pay, employers are exploring other ways to control costs. High-performance networks are one of the options that is being seriously pursued.